Major League Soccer 2025: New York City FC vs. Atlanta United FC prediction, pick

With the inaugural 32-team FIFA Club World Cup set to kick off in Miami on Saturday and the CONCACAF Gold Cup due to start in Los Angeles the same night, the United States will be the home of global soccer attention for the next month. While the world’s best club teams are on American soil, there will assuredly be less attention on Major League Soccer, which will continue its regular season quietly with games this weekend, on June 25, and June 28. By that point, the three MLS squads will have presumably been eliminated from the Club World Cup, as they all have games scheduled for June 28.

Tonight’s slate will feature just one game, as New York City FC will host Atlanta United FC at Yankee Stadium at 8:30 p.m. The home club is a -110 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Atlanta at +260 and a draw at +255.

New York City FC vs. Atlanta United FC prediction, pick

Though each of these teams have had success in recent seasons — Atlanta United won the MLS Cup in 2019, and New York City won it in 2021 — they are both struggling to begin 2025. NYCFC is 10th in the Eastern Conference while Atlanta sits a disappointing 13th. The Five Stripes have brought back some the core that saw them amass so much success in their early seasons — Paraguayan forward Miguel Almirón is back after seven seasons with Premier League side Newcastle United — but it hasn’t made much of a difference, as Almirón has just four goal contributions in 16 matches. He won’t suit up tonight, as he’s on national team duty.

Neither team has a great attack — the Pigeons have scored the fifth-fewest goals in the Eastern Conference, while Atlanta is just one spot better — but the major difference is in the defenses. NYCFC has conceded just 20 goals in 17 matches, the fourth-fewest in the East, while the Five Stripes have given up 30 — the third-most. That’s largely a result of Brad Guzan’s play: the former US men’s national team goalkeeper has conceded those goals from just 25.1 expected goals’ worth of chances, the seventh-worst performance of any shot-stopper in either conference. Matt Freese, on the other hand, has been the league’s fourth-best goalkeeper by that metric.

Atlanta has started to play more defensive formations in an effort to fix its woes, having operated a five-in-the-back in four of its past six games, and it’s kind of helped, as they’ve given up one goal in two of those games and two in the others. Simply, though, the Five Stripes don’t have the personnel to have an elite defense; in addition to Guzan’s woes, Luis Abram ranks in just the 14th percentile in tackles and the first in interceptions, Matthew Edwards ranks in the seventh percentile in interceptions, Pedro Amador in the 11th percentile in tackles, and both Derrick Williams and Brooks Lennon are below-average in both critical defensive categories. Abram will be with the Peruvian national team as they seek to qualify for the World Cup.

However, with Alonso Martínez on international duty with Costa Rica and out of NYCFC’s lineup, the Pigeons aren’t well-suited to take advantage. Hannes Wolf is the only other player on the squad with more than two league goals this season, and he has netted three times in his last three matches. Still, he doesn’t offer as much self-creation as Martínez does, as he’s only won 27.1% of his take-ons this season and been dispossessed or mis-controlled the ball more times than he has made a progressive carry. He’s also somewhat of a worse er than Martínez is.

Also, not that transfer value is everything, but Atlanta United’s combined squad market value is nearly one and a half times that of NYCFC, and with Martínez missing, they’ll have the two most valuable players in the game. Emmanuel Latte Lath is more than capable of filling in for Almirón, and the Ivorian is by far the most valuable player on either team after scoring 11 goals in the EFL Championship in 2023-24. After netting five times in his first six MLS games, he’s on a scoring drought of more than two months, but he’s still a plenty dangerous player. He scored once and assisted once the last time he played NYCFC.

Best Bet: Tie or Atlanta United (-120)